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4 days to go, 14 short of majority
Small parties have never had it as big. So who stands where in the crucial head count in the lead up to the trust vote on July 22? A check on the figures: The UPA stands at 258, which is 14 short of the majority mark of 272. The worry for the Government is not only to gain more MPs from smaller parties and independents but also ensure there are no frights of rebellion in its own ranks.
Left plus BJP plus BSP plus sizeable others make it an impressive 264.. This means that to cross the half-way mark of 271, the Government still needs the support of 14 more MPs.
Where will they come from? The survival of the Government now depends on the 20 MPs who have not yet decided on their stand. These include five MPs of Shibu Soren's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, three Independents and three MPs from Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. National Conference and JD(S) with two MPs each are also in the undecided category. Giving them company are Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress, 1 MP of the Mizo National Front and 1 MP of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen. That's not all. Speaker Somnath Chatterjee is also non-committal. In the event of a tie, his vote will decide if Manmohan Singh Government falls or survives.
Political Twenty20: Chasing 272, Govt tries match fixing
To save the Government and its nuclear deal, the ruling coalition is being forced to strike innumerable smaller deals, some of them quite demeaning and a few ridiculously bad bargains. But the government has no other way to muster a majority and the Opposition is crying foul. “PMO has become a bargaining counter byte,” says BJP spokesperson Aru Jaitley. Shibu Soren's five Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MPs are suddenly in demand. For Shibu it's almost deja vu, a repeat of the infamous underhand deal of 1993 which he had struck with Narasimha Rao to bail out a minority government. Soren, predictably, has gone into hiding. He has been offered a portfolio in the Cabinet. The BJP is also willing to offer him chief ministership of Jharkhand. The Congress suddenly views the controversial Soren in a completely different light. “He is perfectly qualified to be a minister and the PM is to take a call,” says Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwary.
Ajit Singh of the RLD, too, has extracted a portion of his pound of flesh. Amausi airport in Lucknow has been renamed after his father, former Prime Minister Chaudhury Charan Singh.The RLD's three MPs mean a lot to the UPA right now. But a pledge from the RLD may not be enough in a chaotic trust vote where cross-voting may easily upset calculations. "Politics is very fractured today and since elections are so near, a lot of MPs on individual basis are looking as to what happens to them in the elections," Ajit says.
The Samajwadi Party is meeting on Friday. So is the JD(S). The Trinamool Congress and the National Conference are expected to take a call within the next two days.
For the Congress, survival means convincing at least three blocks of smaller parties and Independents. It's a touch and go scenario. And the MPs are aware that this is their only chance to drive home a hard bargain.
Cong MP may vote against Govt
In more bad news for the UPA, Congress MP from Haryana, Arvind Sharma attacked his party and the Manmohan Singh government for "targeting" BSP chief Mayawati and indicated that he may vote against the ruling coalition in the July 22 trust vote. Criticising the Congress for cosying up with Samajwadi Party, the 45-year-old dentist-turned-MP from Karnal said he was "pained" at seeing the "falling standards" of his party. "The government is succumbing to the pressure of Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh which is not acceptable," Sharma told reporters in New Delhi. He said the Government was using the CBI to target "popular Dalit leader" and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati at the behest of the SP leaders to remain in power. "We are witnessing worst days of political bargaining in the country's democratic history," Sharma, who is also member of the Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare, said.
In an indication of his closeness with Mayawati, Sharma said by targeting the UP Chief Minister, the Government has insulted the Dalits, minorities and people of Uttar Pradesh. Asked whether his outburst against the party and the government was an indication that he may vote against the government on July 22, the Congress MP evaded a direct reply and said he was not leaving the party. Sharma said the people of his constituency are "unhappy" with the decisions taken by his party leadership which is forcing him to "rethink" about his future course of action.
There were reports that BJP was trying to rope in some MPs from Congress in Karnataka on promise of tickets in the next Lok Sabha elections
Left playing destructive role
The Congress party on Friday hit back at the Left accusing it of indulging in horse trading to oust the UPA government. Congress spokesperson Veerappa Moily said: "The Left has adopted a destructive role. They want the UPA government out. They don't know what the consequences of their act will be. I appeal to the Left to play a more positive role." Moily also attacked the Left for joining hands with the BJP. He said that the Left was playing a dangerous game that would help install a communal government at the Centre. Hitting out at the Saffron party, the Congress spokesperson said that the BJP has offered post of Jharkhand's chief minister to the JMM leader Shibu Soren.
3 regional leaders hold key to UPA's survival
Three regional leaders with 10 Lok Sabha MPs among them hold the key to the survival of the UPA Government - H D Deve Gowda, Shibu Soren and Ajit Singh. Even while Ajit Singh on Thursday morning was busy talking to the anti-UPA camp with CPI General Secretary, A B Bardhan calling on him, the Union Cabinet cleared a proposal naming Lucknow airport after his father and farmer leader, Chaudhary Charan Singh.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram made the announcement on Thursday: "We have renamed the airport to facilitate smooth landing and take offs." To the FM's little joke, Ajit Singh replied: "It's a welcome decision which should have been taken earlier." Bargaining hard, the Jat leader is still not committing his support, but sources indicate that Ajit Singh could eventually go with the Government.
H D Deve Gowda on the other hand is meeting his party men in Bangalore on Friday. His first condition is he should have a larger say in the state affairs. Congress sources say that the party is close to striking the deal with the JD(S) and the two parties could strike an alliance for the three-state Assembly by-elections in Karnataka.
But of the three, JMM leader Shubu Soren - with five MPs - has been the toughest nut to crack. He is adamant that he be made a union minister. Congress Spokesperson, Manish Tiwari said, "He is perfectly qualified to be a minister, and the Prime Minister is to take a call."
The biggest deterrent for disobeying the party whip is disqualification from the House membership, but most of the MPs are looking for a life beyond the 14th Lok Sabha, and would like to go with the alliance or the party which can assure them a seat in the next Lok Sabha. So, independent MP Harish Nagpal who the UPA is relying upon met BJP President Rajnath Singh to join BJP, while two Union Ministers went and met RJD MP Pappu Yadav in Tihar Jail - Pappu and his wife Ranjita (also a Lok Sabha member) are reportedly unhappy with the UPA for ignoring them. Mizo National Front MP, Vanlalzawma is also non-committal as yet. However, the biggest worry for the treasury benches is the enemy within - the rebel MP's who could switch side on the floor of the house. UPA's floor managers will have to provide enough buffers to negate any cross-voting.
JMM to support UPA Govt in confidence vote
Even though the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief Shibu Soren might be keeping his cards close to his chest on support to the UPA, however, party chief whip Tek Lal Mahato told Times Now that he has assured Sonia Gandhi of support during trust vote. Both UPA and NDA have been trying to woo Soren, who has emerging as one of the most important players in the high stake drama. Meanwhile, Congress spokesperson Veerappa Moily has said, "JMM is a part and parcel of the government." Moily's comments came after Tek Lal Mahato pledged support to the UPA.
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