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| The crucial UPA trust vote slated on the July 22 does not only have political parties on the tenterhooks. It is also keeping the bookies busy. |
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The crucial UPA trust vote slated on the July 22 does not only have political parties on the tenterhooks. It is also keeping the bookies busy. The odds that UPA will reach the 272 seats are in the range of 22-25 paise. The buzz among the bookies is that these rates have been deliberately kept low since they expect the UPA to win the trust vote comfortably. Meanwhile, the odds that UPA will get between 278-280 seats are in the range of 48-50 paise and for 280-285 seats they are 85-90 paise. All bets placed till now total up to around Rs 400 crore, but they are expected to go upto Rs 2,000 crore by July 22.
With just a few days to go for the trust vote, the numbers are stacked up precariously for the Government with both pro and anti-nuclear lobby locked in a dead heat. In the 543-member Lok Sabha, 542 members are eligible to vote. So the halfway mark is 271. The Government claims the support of 260 MPs and Opposition too claims the support of 260 MPs. But 21 are undecided, including those from parties like Shibu Soren's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (5), Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (4), Omar Abdullah's National Conference (2), Deve Gowda's JD(S) (2) and nine others, including four independents.
The Government needs at least 10 out of these 21 MPs to hit the halfway mark, while protecting its own flock.
SP general secretary Siddiqui quits, joins BSP
Meanwhile Desertions in Samajwadi Party on Saturday sent a jolt through a nervous UPA which struggled hard to cobble up 271 in trust vote but the likelihood of cross voting kept the government as well as the Opposition on their toes. The high profile SP general secretary and Rajya Sabha member Shahid Siddiqui, who came in support of the Indo-US nuclear deal ever since the UPA-SP tie up, quit the party and announced his decision to join rival BSP. "For the last one month, I have been feeling uneasy over the nuclear deal. I am of the opinion that it is not in national interest. I have been opposing it for the last three years," he said with UP Chief Minister Mayawati by his side after a meeting with her.
Siddiqui, also a journalist, said that he was taking this position heeding to the call of his conscience and would oppose the deal to the hilt. SP, which has strength of 39 Lok Sabha MPs, is already down to 35 with three rebel MPs -- Munawar Hasan, Raj Narain Budholiya and Jai Prakash being joined by S P Baghel. Though Siddiqui's resignation does not affect Samajwadi Party's numbers in Lok Sabha, it comes as a huge embarrassment to the party that is in the forefront in attempts to muster numbers for the UPA government in the trust vote on Tuesday.
Putting up a brave front, Congress ruled out Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's resignation ahead of the trust vote, claiming he will sail through smoothly.
Working dinner: BJP to count its flock | CPM Committee meeting
The Capital is buzzing with political activity this weekend as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government tries its best to get the numbers to win the vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha on July 22. Leader of the Opposition L K Advani is hosting a dinner for BJP MPs on Saturday. This would be an occasion for the saffron camp to count its flock ahead of the crucial vote.
A meeting of the CPM Central Committee is also scheduled for the day. The parties with the Left will also be in Delhi, which includes Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP and Mayawati’s BSP. Naidu is expected to meet Mayawati at around 12 noon at her residence. The Rashtriya Lok Dal's Ajit Singh and former Prime Minister, JD (S)'s H D Deve Gowda are also in the Capital to discuss the issue.
Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's mantra seems to be 'delay a decision as much as possible' at least for now, when he realizes that his two votes matter much to the UPA. He agrees that the Prime Minister has spoken to him and will be coming over to Delhi and will meet Manmohan Singh and give his nod only after he is satisfied with what he is getting in return.
The Shiv Sena MPs are meeting in Mumbai while Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, whose casting vote too could be crucial, is in Kolkata because of bereavement in his family.
Cong double trouble: Soren not on board, SP MPs
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren has five MPs in Lok Sabha and thus the power to decide the Government’s fate on July 22 when it takes a floor test in Parliament. The Congress’ core group decided that the Union Cabinet won’t be expanded before July 22, meaning that Soren could be offered the Chief Ministership of Jharkhand. The Congress’ floor managers refused to reveal what offer they had made to Soren but their statements fawned him. “I believe Shibu Soren deserves being a minister. He is a member of the UPA,” said Parliamentary Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi. “We should realise the ground realities. Soren is part of the UPA and has been acquitted in some cases,” said Congress spokesperson Veerappa Moily
Soren kept the Congress guessing with the NDA also tempting him with a similar offer of Jharkhand Chief Ministership. The Congress’ other worry is that the Samajwadi party also is looking a little disjointed. Only nineteen of the 39 Samajwadi MPs turned up for Friday’s parliamentary party meeting. Not too much can be read into this, but if it means that if SP is unable to deliver at least 34 or 35 MPs on July 22 the Congress could be in for a rude shock. Unsure of its numbers, the UPA's strategy now seems to be to try and ensure abstentions from those in the BJP who might be tempted to stay away during the floor test.
Government's key to trust vote: MPs abstention
As the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) campaign managers began to tally the numbers, they are coming to terms with an uncomfortable reality that the ruling alliance does not have the 272 MPs required to win Tuesday’s confidence vote in the 542-member Parliament. And as small parties are playing hardball, it is becoming clear that if the Government is to survive the vote, it may need some Members of Parliament (MPs) to abstain from voting on Monday. As July 22 - the date of Vote of Confidence nears - the race to secure the numbers by both the United Progressive Alliance Government and the Opposition is in its home stretch. The Manmohan Singh Government is struggling to get the numbers for the July 21 trust vote.
Projections
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The UPA has the assured support of 257 MPs, still 14 short of the majority, while there are 19 who are undecided.
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If however, the UPA can get 6-8 MPs to abstain, the halfway mark comes down to 267 giving the ruling alliance some chance.
The BJP however, insists that barring actor Dharmendra who is in a California hospital, all the NDA MPs would be present in Parliament to vote out the government.
Abstentions remain a high risk strategy for the UPA, which is also the reason why they are still hoping that Shibhu Soren's JMM, Ajit Singh's Lok Dal and Deve Gowda's Janata Dal Secular will support the UPA at the last moment. Meanwhile, it seems that it is going to be a long weekend for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi, as they wait to see whether their great gamble has paid off.
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